gestaltung badezimmer klein

>> [music playing] >> james whittaker: what's next? we are going to spend the nexthour asking, and answering, that question, what's next? because as students, you all spenda lot of time studying the past. you spend a lot of timemastering the present. >> but asking, and answering,the question, what's next, is what's going to make you successful. because if you can't answer thisquestion, you end up being left behind.

>> companies that can't answerthis question get left behind. individuals get left behind. asking, and answering,the question, what's next, is probably the most important skillthat you will develop in your career. >> you only have to get itright once, and you're done. so we are going to ask this question. but in order to get there we're goingto study the past where people have gotten that answer right and wrong. >> in the 1980s, the bigthing was hardware.

in the 1980s, companiesbought room-sized computers and hired rooms full ofpeople to program them. and in the late '80s,things began to change. >> the companies that weren't asking what'snext, ibm, dak, wang, sperry, are gone. the companies that did ask,and answer, what's next, were the companies that survivedand thrived into the '90s. and of course, what'snext, was software. >> ibm got that answerwrong, and they declined. microsoft got that answer right,and they owned the next decade.

>> now, this decade, thisword decade is a hint. this industry runs in 10 year cyclesthat are as reliable as moore's law is. 10 years is something being born,and then growing into maturity, and being the big thing, andthen going away rapidly, only to be replaced by the next big thing. >> and of course the nextbig thing in the '90s was software, mostlythe operating system. and the killer app was productivity,both office productivity and programmer productivity.

>> the company that owns thatkiller app for what's next, ends up being thecompany that dominates. and of course, that companyin the 1990s was microsoft. >> now 10 years later, microsoftfailed to ask, and answer, the question what's next, because theworld changes reliably every 10 years. and of course, what's next,was the web and the killer app was information retrieval. and google had the bestanswer for what was next. >> now, in 2007, everybodythought the cloud was next.

amazon comes out withamazon web services and everybody was betting on the cloud. that's what's next. but see, there's a problem with that. it was too new. no invention really becomesimportant until it's 10 years old. >> so in 2017, the cloud's goingto become really important, but it's still not what's next. i was a google employee in 2009 when wediscovered the hard way, what was next.

do you know? >> so you've got to get used toasking and answering this question, or you're never going to get good at it. and if you get good at it,you're going to be relevant. >> can i hold the questions for the end? thank you. you're going to be good at it. or you were going to guess? what?

>> speaker 1: mobile >> james whittaker: of course. mobile. now, the way we discoveredthis, is larry page sent out an email that said,hey, we have a big problem. and he called a few of us together. and he showed us the big problem. >> he showed us the data. and the data was frightening.

the data caused us to havea near death experience. the data showed that users thatuse the iphone-- the iphone had been out for twoyears in 2009-- people who use the iphone don't use browsers. they don't search the web. they use apps thatsearch the web for them. >> imagine our fright as google. we made-- at the time wemade 97% of our income on sponsored links and adsviewed through a web browser.

if this iphone thingwas going to be big, if this smartphone thing, if mobile wasgoing to be big, we had a huge problem. 97% of our income gone. crazy. >> what did they do about it? a couple of interesting moves thatgoogle made in 2009 that you all should be aware of, because if youdon't start studying this stuff, you're not going to be able to get goodat asking and answering this question. >> do you remember back before2009, if you googled what time is

it in, say, columbia, what's your city? >> speaker 2: [inaudible]. >> james whittaker: i can't even say that. >> speaker 2: bogota. >> james whittaker: bogota, colombia. what did you get? you got 10 blue links aboutbogota, colombia, and time. all of a sudden in 2009, you gotthe time in bogota, colombia. >> make search more app-like was larrypage's marching order, and we did.

now that's a big deal for google,because every time google delivers an answer, they don't get paid for it. they have to deliver a link that mightbe bought and paid for, or an ad, in order to make money. this was devastating to the business. second thing they did is they movedthe a-team from search to android. and that's probably why marissamayer left the company eventually, because that was a backup plan,just in case this is important. but when we looked at this--at google, we looked at this--

and not only were people usingapps, they were right to use apps. >> you understand, apps are abetter way to search the web. your app searches for you. >> you're from brazil. you're into soccer. what's a better wayto get soccer scores? install a soccer app that specializesin soccer-- oh, football, sorry-- that specializes in football? or search the web that triesto generalize everything?

it's the app, right? >> if you're a foodie, what'sthe best thing to do? get an app that specializes inall the information about food? or search the web through abrowser that is a generalist? >> if you're a sciencenerd, the science app is going to outperformthe web every single time. our life flashed before our eyes. >> but then, why, why did the iphone win? why?

what was it about theiphone that made it special? the blackberry did everythingan iphone would do. windows ce did everything ios would do. >> speaker 3: apple is a companyyou can trust because they value the privacy of their customers. james whittaker: nope. apple has a lot of privacy data. all those other phones, the blackberry,windows ce, palmpilot, they all did everything thatthose other ones did.

what was it? >> speaker 4: performance. >> james whittaker: no. speaker 5: good design? james whittaker: no. the app store. if you wanted to get an app on any othermachine, any other handheld device, before the iphone, howdid you get that app? you had to go to the web.

you had to know where it was.www.whereinthehellismyapp.com. and every single one of those websiteshad a completely different download experience, completely different. >> users couldn't navigate it. no one ever installedapps on those devices. you couldn't update them. >> and steve jobs came alongand said, hey developers. i'm going to put your app wherecustomers can actually find it. how does that sound?

really? you mean i can writecode and it'll be used? wow. that's awesome. >> and it was third party developersthat made that platform what it is. the app store was the killer app. >> now see, this is a hint. start watching for these gap. start watching for these holes.

from hardware to software, therewas a hole that was filled. we can't program all thesemachines individually. one operating system torule them all worked. the web. >> we no longer have to distribute media. we no longer have to updatesoftware and ship it out on disk. we can just push it through the web. this is important. and the app store solved thebiggest problem in mobile.

and if it wasn't for the appstore, it wouldn't have worked. right, because it drew developers. and developers made theplatform what it is. >> i'm going to take questionsat the end, is that ok? or i'm never going to get through this. >> so what's next? what's the 2020s? >> speaker 6: nanocomputers? james whittaker: we'regoing to get to that.

close. >> now, here's what we're going to do. and i want to teach youthis because i think this is the way to discover the future. there was a bunch of gaps,a whole bunch of gaps. and you've got to getused to finding them. >> every time your machines let you down. every time you think, why did i haveto click five times to get this? why is this functionality not there?

that's a missing link. >> that's a gap that youcan step in and fill, but only if you're watching for them. only if you look at the holes in theexisting technology as opportunity instead, of somethingthat pisses you off. here's what we're going to do. we're going to take a scenario, andwe're going to chuck it in 2020. all right? >> we're just going to takea user scenario and we're

going to throw it into thefuture and see what happens. have you ever seen this movie? the best movie ever, right? world war z. >> it's the best movieever for two reasons. first, it's got zombies. and zombies are real, right? not like that bullshit vampire stuffwe had to put up with a few years ago. vampires are made up.

they're not real, they never will be. but they were kind of sexy,so we watched them anyhow. >> but zombies, people, zombies are real. we can mathematically define this virus. it's just a matter of time. it's like your civic duty to watchevery single one of these movies. so that i don't have to killyou during the apocalypse. >> second reason it's the best movie everis because it's got brad pitt in it. it's like zombie movie meetsdate night, and there we were.

i'm going, oh, zombies. and she's sitting next to meand she says, oh brad pitt. somebody told her about the shirtlessscene and she couldn't wait. >> but then something strange happened,my date pulls out her phone and begins to share screen time. she's like, oh brad pitt, addsomething on-- oh, brad pitt. and i'm thinking, what's going on here? what part of shirtless bradpitt does she not understand? >> and then, it got worse.

she taps me on the knee andsaid, i'll be right back. and she walks out of the theaterduring this most perfect movie. i'm stunned. i'm flabbergasted. i'm coming up with break up lines, man. this is crazy. >> finally, she comes back, she sits down. she's gone two, three minutes. and she's in a huff, right,she's clearly hurrying.

and i'm waiting for it, right. waiting for it. come on. say it. you missed part of the movie. >> and she didn't say it. she didn't say, what happened? what did i miss? so i thought, all right,i'll be proactive.

so i said, hey, youdidn't miss anything. and she said, i know. >> because she has an app that tellsher when to pee at the movies. there is an app for that. someone has watched every singleminute of every single movie, and they curated it all. right? >> oh, there's an action sequenceyou don't want to miss. don't pee during that one.

new character, don'tpee during that one. but here's four minutes, right inthe middle, nothing really happens. go take a leak. >> now i ask you all, how manyof you all go to the movies? just raise your handif you're a moviegoer. i think it's safe to saywe're all moviegoers. how many of you all have this app? one person. i love it.

i do too. small bladder people. >> look at this. this is a gap. here is-- $1.98. your $0.99, my $0.99, and yet allof you all are potential customers. >> this is called the applicationdiscoverability problem. and it is the biggest technical problem. it's taking down the app store.

the app store solved a huge problem. you couldn't find apps on theweb, put them all in the store, now you can find them. aha. you can't find them again. >> that is a big world changing solution. so how should this work? let's cast this problem into the future. how should this technologysolve this problem?

it should be that i'm sitting in themovies, and i think, oh i've got to go. and i say, oh i don't know,cortana, i have to pee. now, what does cortanahave to do to help me? >> first, cortana has tofigure out what i'm doing. where is my user? ok. no problem. lat/long pair. easy to do.

built in functionality to the phone. so now, cortana knowsexactly where i am. where is that? looks up an address. maps that lat/long pair to an address. easy. built in functionalityon the map application that is already on my phone. no apps, yet.

>> and then, next, she's got to think, okwhat is he doing here at this location? microsoft research has apatent for geolocating you off the face of the earth. we know you're on the secondfloor of that building. bing has every single floor plan inmost major cities, across the world, as data. >> you're in theater number four. let's see, now i can go look up on theweb what's playing in theater number four right now.

because i know he's watching movie,he hasn't moved it in 30 minutes. cortana knows exactly what i'm doing. >> and in fact, cortana, probablywhen i say, cortana i have to pee, she's probably going to know, right? because the last time she geolocatedme in a bathroom was two hours ago. she's been living in mypocket for two years. she has my mean time to bladderevacuation data down, right? >> she's going to say, yes, james, i know. i saw you buy that beer on the way in,just wait a few minutes, i'll vibrate

and then you can go do your thingand not miss any part of this movie. >> now what happened there? there was no app involved in that. we actually have all of the piecesto solve this problem, right now. so what can we infer aboutthe future based on this? there are several things wecan confer about the future. >> first is our technology doesn'thave to go to the web anymore. we don't have to go to the web anymore. our technology takes us there.

the web is no longer a destination,it's simply a data source. >> the movie times are up there. the pee times are in the cloud. they're actually sitting in azure. all that data is already there. the world is beginningto turn into data. our devices are beginning toprocess and calculate intent almost better than we can. >> secondly, search.

my machine searched the web. do you know in 2015 somethingreally special happened. now i'm not talking about bots,i'm talking about machines. >> machines on the web originatedand consumed more searches than humans for the first time ever. in 2014, it was stilla human dominated web. 2015 it's a machine--machines are equal. 2016, 2017, by 2020, the amount of humangenerated and human consumed traffic is going to be minuscule.

our machines are going tobe consuming the web for us. >> and then, finally apps. where's the app in this? i don't need the app. the app is a noun. i only need the pee times, i don'tneed all the trappings of it. give me the answer and i'm happy. >> why are apps nouns? so you pay for them.

we're going to talk aboutmonetization at the end, because making money getskind of scary in the future. but we're going to talk aboutit, because it's important. >> apps have turned into verbs. my technology discerns my intent,realizes i need something. it's in the cloud. it's on the web. crack the app open,bring out the answer, put it on my devicejust in case i need it.

>> all of a sudden, a lot of the thingsthat we do are no longer human generated. the machines are beginning to take over. so you said nanotechnology, i'm justgoing to generalize it to machines, but yes, a lot of them aregoing to be very, very small. >> so microsoft, my boss came to mesummer of 2014, and he's like dude, hr tells me you haven't takena vacation in four years. go on vacation. >> and so i binged it whatthis vacation thing was.

and apparently, vacation is somethingthat people who don't like their jobs do to get away from their jobs. and that kind of pissed me off, right? i don't want a vacation. so i decided, i want to write code. and so i thought this whole internetof things thing sounded stupid, right? nest a thermostat. you can control it. and it's better, some way, becausethere's a machine doing it.

>> no, it's not. not in my house. i am a seattle tree hugger. that thing stays off. put on a sweater and kiss my ass. or the lights. i've got this light program on my phone. i can do my burglar alarm. it's harder to do the app thanit is to just go over and turn

the light on or turn the light off. >> so i had this whole-- i call bullshit onthe internet of things kind of feeling. so i thought, that's what i'll do i'llinvestigate this internet of things. >> i'll put a machine on the internetof things that deserves to be there. a machine that's got something to say. a machine that's difficultfor me to manage on my own, and i could use some robots to help me. and so i put my hot tubon the internet of things. >> so step 1 was my vision,because i always like to vision

how these things are going to work. my vision was that amazon drone wouldfly over full of hot tub chemicals. and my hot tub would see it coming,and open its lid automatically. and we'd just shoot the chemicalsright in the-- so i thought, ok first thing i'm going to dois i'm going to open and close the lid automatically. and that was actually quite easy. a radio frequency controller onthe motor for my hot-- easy, easy. i mean seriously, two hours.

most of it was just hooking stuff up. four or five lines of code and i'm done. and now i've got a little windowsphone app i can open and close the lid. >> second, was-- actually second was notany of that-- second was i thought, i don't want that amazon dronesquirting chemicals in if i'm in, so i put in a level, a detector. i can detect when a human getsin, the water level rises. >> and in fact, it turns out, i waslooking at the data, i can weigh you. if you're sitting in my hot tub, iknow how much water you've displaced,

i've done the math, and i can weighyou more accurately than a doctor can. and i know if your head'sgone under, because i have to estimate your head weightbecause it's not under the water. so if you go under, iknow if you're drowning. this is totally cool. i had a bug in that, my hot tub keptthinking somebody was drowning and they weren't. i'm like, just go ahead drown,i'm tired of this error message. >> the next was checking and maintainingwater quality, that was the hard part.

that took me a good day anda half to solve that one. because the way you check wateris you actually dip the water out, and you put in these littlechemicals, and you compare the color. and i don't have amachine that can do that. >> so i had to get a laser, and iactually worked with a nanotechnologist to do this. get a laser. shoot it through. and you get the color spread on thislittle backing piece of nanotechnology.

i don't know how it works. it gives me data and it allowsme to determine the color. and then i can maintainthe water quality. very cool. >> next was reorder chemicals. amazon makes buying thingsfrom the web so easy. bless them. so it can reorder chemicals. it can monitor use.

it sends me a signal when somebody's in. it monitors how oftenpeople are in, and i've gotten a bunch of data about that right. >> i know how dirty you arewhen you get in my hot tub. because i can check thewater before you get in. i can check the water after you get in. i know what you've done in my hot tub. >> the amount of data you canget from these machines is pretty, pretty amazing.

it will troubleshoot itself. >> so that's what i'm doing now. i'm monitoring the voltage and trying tofigure out all the noise from the grid. the seattle grid is really spiky. your grid is, probably,really spiky too. >> but i'm beginning to find the patternsfor when my seals are wearing out, because when the sealswear out, voltage spikes. and it stays up. so it's one of these-- youcan detect it over time.

i'm getting to the point whereit's going to be able to do that. >> and then next summer,i'm thinking 3d printing is going to get good enough thati can just print my own seals. by the way, that's somethingelse that's happened in 2015. before 2015, we were only3d printing in plastic. this year we've added metal. we've added carbon fiber. we've added sugars. we can print carbohydrates.

>> speaker 6: there scientists [inaudible] james whittaker: absolutely. and it's going to match yourdna, too, so it's going to know. because, you know, medicine ismade for a six-foot tall white guy. and so we're going to able to dosome amazing things with this. >> proteins are coming next. we're almost to the point where we canprint cotton and fibers for clothing. they're printing houses in china. they're printing cars in north america.

and so i'm thinking i canprint a seal for my hot tub. >> so now, the cool thing aboutthis is, when these hot tubs begin to talk to each other,because let's say you have a hot tub and i have a hot tub. and my hot tub might say, dude-- becausei get to design the hot tub protocol, and they're all goingto call each other dude. that's just going to happen. i guarantee that's going to happen. >> it can say, dude, here's my data.

here's my usage data. here's my chemical data. let's look at yours. and they're going to compare notes. and they're going to figure out whatthe best data-- what the best chemical concoction is. >> this company makes the best chemical. this company makes the bestchemical for the northwest. this company makes the bestchemical for a desert climate.

they are going tofigure all of this out. and it's going to be amazing. >> by the way, this is wherethe advertising and marketing economy goes away. you can't advertise to machines. and if we're right, andif the machines really are the next thing, whatare you going to advertise? how are you going to say, hey, igot some hot tub chemicals for you. look at these hot tub chemicals, man,they've got dancing cats and stuff.

>> they don't care. machines are going to say, we knowthe data, man, don't come advertising to me. and all the machines aregoing to be in on this. yes. >> speaker 6: one of the next thingsis building personal apps for ads so that they don't have to feellike they're being marketed. >> james whittaker: a couple slideslater, i'll talk about that. your refrigerator.

i'm building a new house. i'm shopping for refrigerators. refrigerators. you don't have to justscan things in anymore, like you used to have to keep thebarcode, so it knows you have chicken. >> soon as you close your refrigeratordoor, a bunch of lasers start shining on your food,figuring out what you have in there, how long it's been in there,and its chemical composition. we're going to be able todetect food that's gone bad.

and it's going to be able toknow what you have, it's going to be able to cook, suggest meals. your toaster is going to beon the internet of things. what the hell's a toaster haveto say on the internet of things? actually, i think the toasters have alot to say on the internet of things. but i think one is goingto be really interesting. and that is end of life decisions. because one day, your toaster's goingto wake up and it's going to say, wait a minute.

something's wrong with me. ah, my data's off-- something's wrong. it's going to go out onthe internet of toasters. and he's going to say, dudes,something's wrong with me. what's wrong with me? and these other toasters aregoing to look at the data. >> and they're going to say,oh dude, you're dying. filament number four is wearing thin. you're about to go.

and it's going to have to orderits own replacement toaster. is that sad? that brave little toasteris going to have to do that. >> and the thing that ithink is going to happen is, you're not going toget a choice of toasters. your toaster is going to replace itself. >> you're just going to get the stock,gray toaster, because you don't care. >> you have a pink mac and cool glasses. you're going to get a stylish toaster.

>> your machines are goingto know what you want. they're going to know your incomelevel, and the neighborhood, and what other type of toastersthose people are buying. and they're going tomake decisions for you. >> now, people in my generationare old enough to say, i don't want the machines to take over. i want to make my own decisions. and we don't matter, because we'regoing to die sooner than you all. and you all are going to diesooner than the next generation.

>> and the next generation'sgoing to say, you mean, you picked out your own toaster? that's stupid. you drove your own car? are you kidding me? >> your alls kids aren't goingto get driver's licenses. isn't that cool? >> clothing. clothing is going to self-market.

we're all going to have to dress better. because if i say, man, look at thatmicrosoft shirt, that is awesome. i want that shirt in my size. now, i could come up to you, and ican have this creepy conversation about hey, man where didyou get that cool shirt? >> and all of this, or that thing isgoing to be on the internet of shirts. and it's going to be able tocommunicate with my devices. i don't know how. maybe i do this.

maybe there's a button. they communicate. >> and all of a sudden, i have one ofthose 3d printing at home in my size. and you get paid from that. we're going to talk about howto get paid from all this. you just referred a shirtmanufacturer to a new customer. you're going to get amicropayment for that. this is my prediction. now, it doesn't matter if i'm wrong.

i'm trying to teach you how to ask,and answer, the question, what's next? i'm giving you example answers. it may, or may not, work this way. it doesn't matter. >> what really matters is that youget practice asking, and answering, this question, what'snext, so you're ahead of the curve, instead of left behind. >> so these machines are goingto talk to each other, too. every time i go, my microsoftband-- whatever it is--

is going to know i'mtraveling in europe. and i'm over-eating. >> and it's going to tell myrefrigerator when i get home, hey man, this guy's unhealthy. you need to make sure you just orderhealthy food for him for a few weeks, and let's get hisstatistics back together. they're going to talk to each other. >> all of this traffic isgoing to be going on, and it's going to wash out everythinghumans are doing on the web,

everything humans aredoing with the cloud. our devices are going to discern intent. and they're going to becorrect most of the time. when they're not correct,they're going to learn from it, and they're going tostop being not correct. and within five years,our machines are going to know more about what we needto do during the day than we are. that's my prediction. >> screens.

what if we didn't need screens? what if we didn't have tocarry these things around? because screens go away. if our machines areautomatically discerning intent, why do i need an input deviceto tell them what i want to do? why do i need an output deviceto look at their suggestions? we're going to need it for awhile, because the machines are going to be wrong. the machines are going to say, hey, ithink this is your intent, am i right?

then we'll need it. but then, they're not goingto need that for long. or, they're going to say, hey,there's a couple of choices here. and then we're going to choose andthen they're going to learn from that. and we're not goingto need that anymore. >> if you take away this screen,what happens to this machine? the electronics in thismachine, without the screen, are about the size of my-glad i chose that finger-- about the size of my index finger.

because if you take awaythe screen, you take away 70 some odd percent of the battery,because that's all it does is service the screen. >> moore's law. let's push moore's law afew years into the future. instead of this machinebeing this big, the machine is going to be, in aboutfour years, the size of just from the knuckle to the tip. and in another four years,just the size of my fingernail.

>> we can sew these machinesinto anything, right? you can have computers. do you realize that this windowsphone i carry in my pocket, and the smartphones youall carry your pocket, is more powerful than anycomputer that existed in 1994? in 1995, there were two thatgave it a run for its money. 1994, 21 years ago. >> and so now, all this computing powerinto the size of my fingernail. you all understand moore'slaw is under threat.

moore's law is going away by 2020. we will no longer be able toget silicon so thin that we can continue to double the number oftransistors on it, and microprocessors. how, or what, are we going to do? >> we're already solving this problem. ibm has produced-- ibmremember them from the '80s? they're coming back. see, it's much easier tocome back from a long time ago than it is to come backfrom owning the last thing.

that's why i think apple's introuble, because they're on top now. >> a germanium silicon mix, which isgoing to give a few more years of life, maybe as much as a decadeof life, to moore's law. we're also looking atgraphene and carbon nanotubes. both of those are going to continuemoore's law into the far future. at least a future that is faraway enough to be unimaginable. >> machines are going toget a lot more powerful. and we're not going to need screens. the screens are goingto pop up anywhere.

and you all had hololens on yet? hololens uses your brain, tricksyour brain into putting objects that you think are real. because that's whatyour brain already does. >> i don't look like this. i am your brain-- the way ilook is your brain translating what the light is doing bouncingoff of my skin, and hair, well skin. that's what hololensuses to trick your mind into seeing things that aren't there.

>> so we put a screen on the wall. although this is atotal bullshit exercise, no daughter needs her dad tofigure out how to fix this. that daughter's going to do whateverybody else does, and go to youtube to figure out how to fix this. so i don't think ibelieve that scenario. >> but this is what it looks like. it's not virtual reality,it's augmented reality. screens can be anywhere.

you can work with this. you can see a word documenteight feet away from you, giant. you can have a holographic keyboardmaterialize and hover right in front of you, andwith the special gloves, it actually feels like a real keyboard. >> the screens are going tocome when we need them. and we're not going to needthem for most things, just creative things, design things. for the times when we areintensely human, again.

because that's my hope is thatthe machines will get us back to that intensely human place. >> now let's talk about money. and again i'm going to talk-- i'mgoing to go-- i might not be right. i want you all to ask this question. i want you all to answer this question. but i'm showing you how to do it. >> what about money? how are we going to makemoney in this future

when our machines aredoing everything for us? well, let's take a look in the past. how did we make money-- sorry, it'snot my fault harvard doesn't have hdmi. >> the web, how did wemake money on the web? there's two words you'remissing web and ads. >> why are browsers still thesame as they were in 1994? do you all realize that? netscape navigator in1994, here's how it worked. you invoked it.

and you got a rectangle on a screen. it had a text box. you clicked in a text box,typed the search term, hit enter, and got 10 blue links. >> that's the same way the edgebrowser, and the chrome browser, work 21 years later. exactly the same way. no other piece of software worksthe same way as it did 21 years ago. and it's exactly the same way.

it's a little faster. and it takes a few morefile formats, but that's it. >> why? because of ads. browsers are moneymaking little machines. because it's start,stop, start, stop, right? you have to type in search terms, geta search, stop, opportunity for ads. >> and then you go to a website,stop, opportunity for ads. over and over.

>> it's like the nfl. they only play for 10 seconds beforethey stop for commercial break. it's crazy. advertisers love it. but it doesn't work so wellin the apps world, does it? it's a lot harder. there's not enough room. >> apps are more like soccer. where's the ads in soccer?

you can't stop a soccer game. go on, go on-- hey, time out, guys. aren't you all buggered? take a break. that doesn't worked out way. >> and apps don't work that way, either. because i got that food app, i gotthat science app, for a reason. i want to get work done using my app. ads get in the way.

so when apps came out, allof a sudden, the ads economy had to make way forthe purchase economy. >> and for $0.99, forever, notper year, but forever, you can make those ads goaway, and people do. the purchase economy isbeginning to really take hold. and i think you're going to see it takehold in some really interesting ways, too. >> if you look at my blogon medium.com, i wrote a blog post called twitter isstupid, which is kind of cool,

because it trended on twitter. twitter is stupid, becausethis is why it's stupid. i tweeted this last year, or something,traveling to boston and new york city next week. any locals who can hook me up withsome good live music recommendations? >> i'm blessed with a lot of followers. i've got a bunch of peoplefrom boston and new york city. nobody replied. i got two favorites.

why in the hell wouldyou favorite this tweet? james can't find no music, asshole. >> are you kidding me? so i thought this is broken. surely all of these places, all of theselive music venues in these two cities have a twitter account, right? and so i looked it up, becausebing's ingested all the twitter data. >> so i could use a few of the apicauses-- it's not even codes, it's just making an api call.

1,500 of them. 1,500 twitter accounts thatclaim to be live music venues. so i just wrote a little loop,and sent this tweet to them. blast. four lines of code. >> and then i waited. i didn't have to wait long. one minute, because every singlepeople-- all of them who care, have a social media coordinator, withthree screens-- instagram, twitter,

facebook-- waiting for customers. >> and i'm thinking, what's wrong here? here i am in twitter saying,i want to spend money. and here are other twitter accounts,i would like to take your money. and twitter's like, would you liketo see an ad for-- you're stupid, twitter, stupid. >> how should it work? it should work like this. left swipe, right swipe.

data to tell me what i like. or am i connecting youto the right people? >> let's see. hyatt regency boston saysthey've got jazz music. jazz sucks. left swipe. holy. the only people that like jazz arepeople that play it, for goodness sake. >> the boston symphony, theygot classical music now.

now, now, now. we legalized marijuana inmy state a year or so ago, and all of a sudden, classicalmusic is sounding a lot better. but i'm not yet stoned enough. >> orpheum theater in boston's gotcage the elephant and the foals. cage the elephant is awesome rockband from kentucky, my homeland. and i went to see this concert. >> this is commerce. this is the purchase economythat's going to begin to take over,

and twitter is beginning to do this. i don't know if my blog post hadanything to do with it, or not. but you can now donate money to apolitical candidate through twitter. >> they are finally beginningto connect buyers and sellers within their ecosystem. and you are going to see this. it's a massive threat to google. this is a massive threatto anything that puts ads in the path of buyers and sellers.

>> facebook and twitter didthis, they would consume much of the purchase economy on the web. >> now what about when devicesstart coming into play? what about this scenario. cortana, i have to pee. and i go. and i come back. how about that? how does this person makemoney in this new economy?

>> i think it's subscriptionsand micro payments. that data is in azure. that developer pays a subscriptionto be an azure customer. >> so do a million other, i thinkmicrosoft announced last week a million paid accounts inazure, or something like that. so a lot of money in the ecosystem. >> so when cortana sees me go andconsume third-party content, a micropayment will be made. this makes perfect sense.

the subscription moneyis already out there. >> you all have subscript-- you're payingsubscriptions to spotify, and netflix, and comcast, or time warner, or whoeverwhatever lousy cable company you all are stuck with. i know they're lousy,because they're all lousy. >> in order to get from onegame of thrones episode to the next game of thrones episodeon my comcast box, it's 21 clicks. that's an opportunity. >> so for a cent, maybe you watchworld war z. that's a $0.04 pee.

a three hour hobbitmovie, that's a $0.28 pee. the premiere of starwars, that pee's $1, man. >> so now, instead of you and i, thetwo lone people who got this app, makes a couple of dollars, or hemakes money on every single customer. this is the economy that's coming. every single, possible customer, whenthey consume your value, you get paid. >> now this, you need tothink about very carefully. because i think this isthe future of making money. it's your ability to injectvalue into the ecosystem.

the more the value gets consumed,the more money you're going to make. >> speaker 6: what about rpgsand buying virtual products? james whittaker: that'spurchase economy, right? and that's already takingplace, so it's now. >> now, what about things? when these machines really beginto start doing real things for us, it adds one more additionalway of making money. and that's sharing. airbnb, we share our houses.

uber, we share our cars. >> do you know there's an airpnp? have you ever been driving,and go, god, i got to go? why do all my exampleshave to do with urination? god, i got to go, right. and you're driving by allthese houses, with toilets. it's a buck and a half togo pee at somebody's house. and then they can rate you, soyou can't-- it's got to be clean. >> so sharing comes about.

in fact, i'm going todo that for my hot tub. it's going to rent itself out, becauseit's completely self-maintaining now. $100 an hour, it's goingto rent itself out. so anyhow, if you're inwoodinville, washington, next year, and you need a soak-- >> [thkk] >> now, what about whenthe machines take over. because if you listen to people like raykurzweil, and bill gates, and stephen hawking, and elan musk, everybody'sworried about this thing

they call the singularity, thepoint at which the machines get so smart that they don't need us anymore. >> now we've got a long way toget there, but on the way, we are going to becomeless and less relevant. you understand that our industry hasdestroyed a lot of other industries. the video rental industry, gone. >> the photography industry, gone. eastman kodak used toemploy hundreds of thousands of people, and millionsof ancillary jobs,

and taking pictures and developing film,and wedding photographers, all of that billions of dollars concentratedinto the 13 employees of instagram. >> we are really good at destroyingjobs and making it harder and harder and harder for people to make money. so what happens when themachines start doing everything? what then? >> because you know what? they're going to bebetter at it than we are. there is going to come a day, in thevery near future, when you will not

get on an airplane if there'sa human in the cockpit. too dangerous. i don't know if that personis taking their meds. no way. there's going to come a day,not too distant future, where it will be illegal fora human to drive a car because the machinesare a lot better at it. they're going to bebetter at everything. they're going to be better at building.

they're going to be better at driving. they're going to be betterat paving our roads. they're going to be betterat designing traffic flows. they're going to be betterat designing traffic lights. they're going to be betterthan us at all of this. >> so what do we do? when the number of jobs that wecan do better than machines are, ok, i'm going to have totake this question, aren't i? speaker 6: machines don'thave feelings, and they

have no desire to do certainthings, nor can they handle things. james whittaker: they can't desireif they don't have feelings. speaker 6: right. so they don't handle thingslike interpersonal interactions, there's going to be more jobsfor people like psychologists-- james whittaker: ok. you're a little bit ahead of me, again. so bear with me. i'm going to get there, i promise.

is that what we're left with? basically all just the human part? where we're philosophers,and we're poets? is this why we're legalizing marijuana? are we preparing for this daywhere basically it just, let's think deep thoughts and get high. >> or it could be what you suggest. it could be that the machinesgive us back our humanity. it could be that they take care of allthe things that we don't want to do.

so we can get back to being human. >> but is this singularity going to come? it might. our machines aregetting really powerful. why are they? why is it all of a suddenthat we're talking about ai? do you understand what'sgoing into this ai? i claim it's not ai, at all. i claim it's just code.

>> look. here's why our computers, ourmachines, are looking so smart now. number one is they got datathey didn't have access to. even a few years ago, theydidn't have access to this data. now, everything is born digitally. of course, they have the--there's just that much more data. >> secondly, that data'sstored together, now. we don't really have a web. you all understand theweb is already dead.

>> how many of you all have built aweb server, over the last year. so this is the highest concentrationof web server developers that will ever exist in a university. if i had asked this five yearsago, every single one of you all would be buildingweb servers every week. because that's what you did. you configured web servers all the time. i had six of them under my deskserving different kinds of traffic. that's not the web we have anymore.

the web we have now is data centers. all those web servers have migratedinto the cloud, into data centers. and so they're all together, whichmeans we can store contiguous data, related data in the same place, andoff-line process the crap out of it. >> right now, no one'ssearching for world cup data. and so all-- soccer world cup, mayberugby but rugby is over now, too. so all that's migrated to back endmachines, and now all this stuff-- >> we can push data that's morepopular different places. and then offline, wecan say, ok hey let's

take a look at this worldcup data, and see what we can figure out, completely offline. that's why it's looking so much smarter,is because it's all sitting together. and our machines are a lotfaster at processing it. vast amounts of data, well-organized,and processed at speed. >> and yet still, at some point,we are going to figure something out really important. and i think it's thehuman brain project. that's what we need to watch.

do you all know aboutthe human brain project? >> look, we mapped the human genome withcomputers no more powerful than this. in 1990, the humangenome project started. we mapped the genome of an arbitraryhuman being in 13 years using computers no power more powerful than this. >> now we have computers waymore powerful than this. and we started mappingthe brain two years ago. this is where our machinesare going to help. our machines allow us to do this.

we don't map the brainwithout our machines. and what are we going to discover? >> what have we already discoveredin just two short years? two years into the humanbrain project, we're already hitting milestones at year eight. we know what depression looks like. we know what anxiety looks like. we know what bipolar looks like. we know what autism looks like.

>> all of these thingsare already mapped out. how much longer until ourmachines look at this and say, i know how to cure anxiety. i know how to cure depression. our machines are going to do this. and it's going to be stunning. >> so i think our machinesare going to allow us to do what we were meant to do. this, i think, is the fundamentalpurpose for human beings

is to explore, to terraform otherworlds, to reach other solar systems, to find other lives, to figure outwhether ancient aliens really is true. >> and we are going to slowly solveevery single mystery of mankind. this is what you all are going to do. this is what yourchildren are going to do. and over the decades, we will exhaustevery single mystery on the planet, and on other planets. and then what? this is the thought i'mgoing to leave you with.

then we'll have questions. perhaps, just perhaps,using these magic machines, the power of our minds amplifiedby these magic machines, we'll discover that we weren'tmeant to go to heaven at all. >> but through technology, tocreate heaven for ourselves. perhaps, just perhaps,the meaning of life isn't given to us by a higher power. perhaps, we use our technologyto evolve into that higher power. >> perhaps, god, it is said,created us in his own image.

maybe, through these magicmachines, we create god in ours. >> my name is james whitaker. i work for microsoft. follow me on twitter, if you'd like. the transcript of this ison medium.com/@docjamesw. >> and i'll take questions. speaker 7: so twoquestions, first thing. when we're talking about-- >> james whittaker: oh, you'regetting a free question here, huh?

speaker 7: --app storetransforming everything. but ubuntu had an app store thatlooked exactly like the one from apple. it was just for desktop. why is it that app store formobile is that life changing? james whittaker: because mobile, that'swhere all the users were in mobile. now there's a second piece to this. the second piece to this is steve jobs,and his amazing storytelling ability. >> speaker 7: because technically,the ubuntu app store already solved the problemof i have an app for--

>> james whittaker: but there wereeight people with ubuntu machines. and there were 200 million people with-- >> speaker 7: and that's the steve jobs. >> james whittaker: --iphonesand that's steve jobs, right. but it was the developers, thedevelopers building functionality. that's why you all haveiphones, and not the other because they've got the best app store. what was your second one? >> speaker 7: about the future.

i always wonder why people sayso much, internet of things, right now, because webasically have the technology, we had this technology doingmost of this stuff like 10 years, or even 20 years ago. >> james whittaker: ah, i don't know. we had the sensors, but thedata-- we didn't have the data. there wasn't anythinguseful for them to do. and we didn't have the conductivity. bandwidth is almost free now.

so. >> speaker 7: does the databring that much into it? >> james whittaker: butit's 10 year cycles. everything that you all areusing right now is 10 years old. and what's going to be really big in10 years has already been invented. that's why the cloud isunderpinning all of this. and the cloud was invented in 2007. so it takes a while for the worldto catch up with the technology. yes, ma'am.

>> speaker 6: so, the brainproject, there are those people in the field of psychology, who feelthat neuropsychology may turn out to be nothing more than phrenology. how do you think-- is itpossible to quantify and create algorithms, understand a stateof consciousness and intent, when we don't understandwhat those things are? >> james whittaker: so i actuallythink that the machines are never going to catch up to us. my opinion is thatgray matter will end up

being triumphant overgermanium, silicon, carbon nanotubes, and graphene. i think there's something goingon up here that's really special. i do think we're going to figure it out. i'm not sure we're going tofigure out how to build it. yes, sir. >> speaker 8: who governs this? if we get to a point where the machinesand our software are making all of these momentous decisions, doesthat mean that at some point we--

in our world where governance isn'timportant anymore, and google, microsoft and internationalcorporations-- >> james whittaker: that's why peopleare signing all these petitions to create rules about never-- we'vealready programmed machines to kill. we've done that, and themachines have independently killed people, because theyare obeying their programming. >> and so, we can program themto do anything we want. where are those laws going to come from? do people trust-- the companiesat the forefront of this

are microsoft, google,ibm, even cisco, tesla. who are we going to trust? >> i mean, this is asocietal level discussion that really needs to take place. i don't have an answer for it, becausei don't think there is one yet. donald trump, vladimirputin, they'll figure it out. >> [laughing] >> i love blue states. we can laugh on things like that.

wow, i have to be carefulwhen i talk in red states. any more questions? >> speaker 7: so when youwere talking about things, you know, if you wentto the movie theater, and you used the bathroom, thata payment would already happen. >> james whittaker: yeah. money is going to be movingaround, so that micropayment, i am 100% sure thatthat's going to happen. it has to.

the app store is breaking down. no one's making money in the app store. and whenever no one makes money,that's when change happens. >> it was harder to make-- easier tomake money on web than windows. that's when the transition went. when it was easier to makemoney on mobile than the web, that's when the transition went. when it's easier to make moneyin the cloud than on mobile, that's going to be the transition.

it's capitalism. did i get all your question? >> speaker 7: so actuallyit was more about-- does that mean you see the industrybecoming more consolidated? >> james whittaker: at first. but it's going to be a reaction. my prediction is, actually, thatit's going to be individuals. i don't know how long thebig companies are going to last because we won't need them.

>> when infrastructure isfree, storage is free. yeah. if you all need to go, you won'thurt my feelings by filing out. but when storage is free,when infrastructure is free, when networks are free,when communication is free, there's no advantage to thebig conglomerates anymore. so it's an individual thing. >> it's your ability tocode, it's your ability to code, it's her ability to code,and inject value into the ecosystem.

because the infrastructureis going to be free. it could be a greatage of the individual. so did you have thegrand scale of everything you covered, but i justhad a question about what your vision for [inaudible], how tointeract with [inaudible] directly everything is totally taken care of. so you talked about[inaudible] you'd have word doc and [inaudible] over here. and so one thing i found aboutphysical [inaudible] systems

is that some things areevolving, like touchscreens are definitely getting waybetter than they used to be. mice are getting way betterthan they used to be. but the physical keyboardis actually pretty amazing. and it's [inaudible] james whittaker: is it, or isit-- so i don't know the answer, but i want you to not getlost in your opinions. question that. is it just your familiaritywith a physical keyboard

that's creating this affinity to it? or is it really something that is--because we're very limited by it. this corded keyboard is actuallythe wrong way to type fast. artificially, slows us downbecause the old mechanical things we needed to slow typists down. i don't know. >> i think, i believe thatthe machines are going to be able to figure outintent really easily. if you're a writer,you're going to need it.

the machines, those input devices,are going to be for the creatives. that's how we're going to know who areour artists, who are our creators, who are our designers, and who are justthe muggles, that go through world not needing their machines. >> keep thinking about this, andbe careful of your biases. we all inject biases in this. i've got biases injected in this. that's why i warned you, thisis not what's going to happen, it's my opinion ofwhat's going to happen.

i want your all's take away to be youwalk out of here thinking, what's next? what's next? i want you cussing me in the middleof the night when you wake up and say, what's next? damn james. asshole. what's next. careful of your biases. >> is there more questions?

>> speaker 7: earlier you talked aboutmachines being able to predict intent and what people want. what happens-- will they be able to knowwhen people want to change their minds or trying something new? let's say your fridge is goingto order your groceries for you. what if one day i want totry coconut milk ice cream. james whittaker: iremember my mother-in-law-- i remember tastingflavored coffee one time and thought, um, that's really good.

and every time we went to visither she had flavored coffee flavor and i'm like, how do i tell her? so i mean, we don't have to worryabout hurting machine's feelings. and so you just-- >> speaker 7: tell it. tell it. speak to it. or whatever. the interfaces-- i think there'sgoing to be a time, a phase where

we are going to be discovering this. it seems to me that you know, you saidtouch screens are really getting good. to me that means they're doomed. because as soon as we perfecttechnology, we don't use it anymore. >> pcs got really good, andwe're like, oh sorry. we're cheating on ourpcs now with these. these are going to get really good andit's going to go into something else. >> 10 years. 10 years seriously.

10 year cycles. think about that. it is as reliable and asaccurate as moore's law. >> anybody who hasn'tasked a question, yet? >> so i also teach a course onstorytelling, and on creativity, the brain science guyon how to be creative. neuropsychology is areally, really cool topic. and i've decoded creativity and iknow what it takes to be creative. >> so if you all enjoyed this,i can come back sometime

and teach one of the other seminars. and the storytelling class actuallytells six stories and deconstruct them. if you go to docs.com, you can seeme doing this with a high school. i give a high school commencement speechthroughout the state of washington. >> and i give this speech,and then deconstruct it, and talk about why you all havebeen sitting here paying attention. when most of the time you sitthere and stare at a powerpoint, you're bored of fucking tears, right? >> there is actually amethod to the madness.

and i tell a greatstory about larry page. speaker 6: can we come to workshops? or do you just do seminars? james whittaker: well, i teachthese monthly at microsoft. all of them-- >> speaker 6: but for creative writing, james whittaker: oh, right. got it, no. i give homework.

and so, at microsoft, the way i doit is i take classes and chop them into four bits, and give homework,and then we talk about the homework afterwards. it would be great. so maybe we could do one together. >> i just hate running workshops. so i don't do it,because i don't like it. not that it's not important,it's very important. i just don't like it.

peace.

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